Global Strategy

Terrence Guay. (2017) Emerging Powers and Future Threats: Implications for the U.S. and Global Defense Industry. (Carlisle, PA: U.S. Army War College Strategic Studies Institute)

This  monograph  evaluates the implications of increasing defense industrial capabilities in emerging markets for the U.S. and global defense industries. It begins  with  an  overview  of  global  arms  production  and  trade.  From  there,  the  direction  turns  to  the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South  Africa)  and  Turkey,  with  an  overview of each country’s most significant current issues, termed “macro-variables.” The six  countries  analyzed  represent  the primary non-Western countries  that  are  active  in  either  importing  or  exporting  weapons  or  both, and either currently have or hold the conditions to develop a vibrant defense industrial base over the next decade or two. This evaluation is followed by an overview  of  each  country’s  defense  industrial  base,  with an assessment of their capabilities and economic orientation  regarding  domestic  versus  global  sales  and,  at  the  international  level,  the  likely  recipients  based on the global interests of these countries. Four  recommendations  are  made to  address  the  developments  in  these  six  countries, including building  industrial  alliances  with  allies (especially  Europe,  Japan,  South  Korea, India, and possibly Turkey), minimizing technology transfers to likely industry rivals, and using  weapons  exports  to  achieve  political  objectives,  especially  in  Africa  and  Latin  America,  where  China  is  seeking  similar goals.